AHAFO REGION · DELEGATE ELECTIONS

Explore the possibilities.

Change your assumptions. See how the numbers move.

Delegate assumptions

Enter how many delegates support each candidate. Example: 28 delegates = 15 + 8 + 5 votes.

Overall turnout %

Candidate shares are vote counts at 100% turnout. Both turnout settings scale these shares equally. Unallocated votes remain undecided; shares must not exceed the group count.

Scenario outcome

Expected votes from your assumptions

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How the calculation works

Expected votes = candidate vote share × overall turnout × group turnout. Enter whole delegate shares; turnout adjustments can produce fractional expectations. Fractional votes are scenario expectations, not actual ballots. No random sampling or win probabilities are used.

Undecided delegates participate but are not assigned a candidate. The majority threshold is strictly more than half of all expected participating delegates, including undecided. The displayed integer target is floor(expected participation ÷ 2) + 1. Plurality requires a sole leader; a tie produces no sole winner. Rules are configurable assumptions, not verified election rules.

Best & worst case

Stress-test the remaining undecided votes for a selected candidate.

Analyse candidate

Best case: all undecided votes go to this candidate. Worst case: all undecided votes go to their currently strongest opponent (first listed if tied). Entered candidate shares and turnout stay fixed. These are separate hypothetical extremes for the selected candidate, not simultaneous bounds for every candidate. With no undecided votes, both cases equal the current scenario. To model uncertain support, leave those votes unallocated.

Compare scenarios

Save snapshots to compare assumptions and outcomes side by side.